10 Things To Look Forward To

One of the very first articles I ever wrote for the Wire Donkey was entitled "Ten Things To Look Forward To When The Oil Runs Out". I wrote it four years ago, and you know the First Noble Truth: All things change. So what's up with that oil thing these days?

In 1999 the world was using 70 million barrels a day. We're now closer to 80, and the demand just keeps growing. So has production. But for how much longer? What ever happened to that pesky global oil production peak everyone was so chatty about awhile back? Funny you should ask. Looks like it's here.

The estimated peak of oil production has moved closer to us as we have been moving closer to it. The projected peak was coming in 2035, then 2020, 2010... all as we waltzed our way through 1999-2002. And now here we are in 2003, and many industry analysts say this is it. The 80 million barrels a day we're pumping right now may well be the most we'll ever pump. Welcome to the top of the heap. It's not so much a peak, as it turns out, but a sort of mesa. How long we're able to stay on top depends on a great many things, the least of which is how much crude there actually is in the earth today. Or tomorrow, for that matter. Just don't expect anyone to be able to beat that figure by any substantial amount. Politics, technology and commerce will all conspire to limit production to its current global level until the reality of geology takes over a few years from now. By the time we get our act together, the curtain will be slowly falling.

So, as I type this over the din of a street clogged with SUVs, what happens next? Remember: Anytime you read estimates of how much oil is out there, divide that number by 80 million. That's how many day's worth they're talking about. This "mesa" of global oil production is likely to last through 2006. But when will it be a part of the nightly news? My prediction: AFTER the U.S. Presidential election of 2008.

1. Silence. With fewer cars on the road we'll actually be able to hear ourselves think.
2. More wildlife. The world will be a safer place for possums, raccoons, pedestrians and cyclists.
3. Better TV. Odd but true: Look for fewer obnoxious car commercials on TV. Ahhhh.
4. More room in your house. With no car, you'll have plenty of room in the garage. Rumpus room!
5. No more irate drivers. Sure, they're cyclists now, but we can deal with that.
6. Mass transit. But only if we get our act together and build it before the oil goes into that big drop.
7. Physical fitness. Hey, this is not for wimps. You will be in shape!
8. True society. Get everyone out of their cars and they'll have to meet and greet.
9. A better world. We'll do better without the oil spills and smog. Breathe in! Breathe out!

And finally,

10. Respect. Bicyclists will once again rule the road as they did a hundred years ago, before oil. The world will be slowly remade on a more human scale, and an adult on a bicycle will get the respect they deserve from the now cycling public. We will have the last laugh.

But until then? Of course it's going to get ugly. Very ugly. The media news frenzy we'll see on TV will only be the tip of the iceberg. As we watch Americans decry the "criminality" of three dollar gas on the nightly news, Africans will be starving to death and the Middle East will be roiling in war and rebellion. South Americans will take to the streets in protest as two billion Chinese hunker down and quietly solve the problem for themselves. The English will offer a stiff upper lip and soldier on through the hardship as the Japanese convert to an oil-less sustainable society virtually overnight.

Before we settle in to a sort of comfortable post-oil Willoughby [see below], you're going to hear crying and yelling the likes of which you have never heard before from middle class Americans who seemingly had no idea this was coming - and shouldn't the government do something about it? I would strongly suggest, when that phase of the transition begins, that you turn off your TV and go for a bike ride. You'll feel much better.

Meanwhile, sit back, relax, and know this: There's nothing you can do about it. You can't stop it. You can't even put it off. You can quietly prepare for the day when you can't fill up your car's tank. You can look at your yard and imagine where the garden will go. You can watch and read and study the problem all you want, and you should. But don't be fooled: We're in for a rocky ride. War, politics, technology and commerce will all dance around and wave their arms to distract you, but it won't change a thing.

Sometime after the next inauguration, that president is going to have to stand up in front of the TV cameras and tell you the truth: "My fellow Americans, we are embarking on our greatest adventure. Keep your bike tires pumped."

"Willoughby" is from an old Twilight Zone episode. A harried businessman would commute by train every day, on his ride home daydreaming and fantasizing about a pefect 19th Century small American town where the train would stop: Willoughby. The conductor would call out the stop, and he'd look out the window at that picture-perfect little villige, but never get off the train. One day he'd had enough. The job was too much, his wife hated him, life stunk. The conductor called out the stop and he got off the train which, in the real world, was doing about 60 mph at the time. The punch line? The hearse that picked up the body from the side of the tracks was from the "Willoughby Funeral Home".